The 2014 Republican primary is shaping up to be a real doozy.

         Just about all the statewide action of this political cycle will be decided in less than a week from right now.  Thus, it is time to make some SWAG predictions.  (SWAG stands for Scientific Wild A** Guess).

Here are my guesses in the key races of governor, secretary of state and state superintendent of public instruction:

         Governor - Let’s start at the top where two shrill and combative adversaries are challenging incumbent Gov. Matt Mead.

         We find it easy to endorse Mead. He has been a good governor. He has been a steady hand on the helm. He sure has done little to embarrass himself or the state. If either of his two main opponents would get elected, well, it would be a newspaper columnist’s dream. But it would be a nightmare for Wyoming.

 After four years, it appears that Mead has a tentative streak at times. In his defense, no governor in modern times has had to deal with an aggressive tea party movement and crazy situations like that involving the irrepressible State School Supt. Cindy Hill.

The whole Senate File 104 episode was explosive. Legislative leaders and the governor decided they had had enough of the craziness in Hill’s Wyoming Department of Education. When they acted to limit her powers it made sense. But the whole effort blew up in their faces when the Supreme Court voted 3-2 against their actions. What a nightmare scenario for all involved. But the legislators’ and the governor’s intentions were pure and necessary.

Hill boasts a loud and supportive following. But there are not enough of them who are willing to vote her in as our next governor. 

Dr. Taylor Haynes has lots of yard signs around the state and has campaigned hard. He stubbed his toe, though, with his zeal for converting public lands to state lands.

A prediction:

Mead 46,322

Haynes 28,743

Hill 28,666

Secretary of State – Contrary to the governor race, Wyoming cannot lose no matter who wins this race. All are capable men who love this state and bring quality experience to the job.

Ed Murray and Pete Illoway, both of Cheyenne, appear to be the top candidates.  Pete may be best qualified but Murray is running a dynamite campaign.  His “Murray means business” is the best slogan in the entire primary.

Clark Stith of Rock Springs and Ed Buchanan of Torrington have also worked hard. This race could be close enough that it is hard to easily pick the overall winner. But there can only be one victor.

Murray may set a record for money spent on a Secretary of State race.  In an August primary, name recognition often is the deciding factor in close races. Murray has an effective team and done just about everything right.

A prediction:

Murray 32,544

Illoway 32,329

Stith 20,868

Buchanan 17,954

State Supt. of Public Instruction – This is the only race where the Democrat Mike Ceballos has an excellent chance to defeat the Republican nominee in the November general election.

But this column is about the three main GOP candidates.

Jillian Balow of Cheyenne has emerged as the front-runner.  Her experience in her most recent state job at the Department of Family Services gives her some clout among voters willing to check out her record.

Plus her roots in Worland, Thermopolis, Gillette and Cheyenne will give her a statewide pull that the other candidates lack.

Bill Winney of Bondurant is an old friend and he would serve the state well.  I am not sure he has been able to get the statewide traction that Balow has managed to finish first. He has run before and lost in statewide elections.

Sheryl Lain of Cheyenne will be hurt by her close connection to outgoing School Supt. Cindy Hill.  The majority of Wyoming folks just want all that drama to go away. It is fair to say that Wyoming people are suffering from Cindy Hill fatigue.

A prediction:

Balow 41,922

Winney 34,856

Lain 23,511

At this point, neither Mark Gordon’s State Treasurer’s race or Cynthia Cloud’s State Auditor’s race are competitive and do not require comment.

We would like to thank all candidates for seeking public office in Wyoming.  Running for office in this time of constant social media attacks can be almost unbearable.

Even if you are not voting for a certain candidate, be sure to thank him or her for their quest for public service.