If this were a horse race, the announcer might say that front-runner Liz Cheney of Wilson is holding off challenger Leland Christensen of Alta on the last turn while early leader Tim Stubson of Casper is still running hard but might be starting to fade.

         But it is not a horse race.

         This is the race for Wyoming’s lone Congressional seat and there are eight men and one woman working very hard to convince voters that each is the best person for the job.

         This is the most interesting statewide race in the 2016 primary election. With the backdrop of the declining Wyoming economy, the emphasis on this election has not been as sharp as in previous years.

         After a bit of deliberation and a lot of imagination, here is what I foresee as vote totals for the predicted 78,728 votes in this Aug. 16 Republican primary for our lone seat in the U. S. House of Representatives:

         Liz Cheney – 22,433

         Leland Christensen – 21,789

         Tim Stubson – 20, 625

         Darin Smith – 5,421

         Mike Konsmo – 2,363

         Jason Senteney – 2,267

         Heath Beaudry – 1,543

         Paul Paad – 1,275

         Rex Rammell – 1,012

         By now, three conclusions have become abundantly clear to these candidates in the last weeks of the campaign:

         First, Wyoming is so doggone big. I ran a statewide campaign in 2002 and even had my own airplane. We also put on 50,000 miles on our cars and still could not come close to blanketing the state. We started out an underdog and finished up on election night an underdog.

         Second, the Republican primary election is a much different beast than the general election. Most candidates succumb to the lure of running a statewide campaign in the primary, which can cost you a lot of money and valuable momentum. There are fewer voters going to the polls in the primary but these voters are the key members of the party. It takes years of dedicated service by yourself or your family to attain access to these folks. Liz Cheney’s credentials as a member of one of the most important political families in Wyoming history has given her a huge advantage in this race when it comes to primary campaigning.

         Third, you lose control of your schedule.  Way back in December and January you can set your own program and yet it seems like no one is listening.  When you finally get your message organized, then parades, county fairs and events like Frontier Days in Cheyenne fill up your schedule. Instead of the crowd finding you, you go where the crowds are.

         With Wyoming being the most Republican of all 50 states, this race is going to be decided during the primary.  Whoever wins the primary will also win in the general election in November.

         We have enjoyed meeting these candidates over the past eight months as they have crisscrossed the state. With Lander being in the west-central part of the state, we get to see them often. 

         Liz Cheney is always professional when she drops by the Fox News All-Stars coffee group.  When she came by during her unfortunate campaign against U. S. Sen. Mike Enzi a few years ago, she had hired hands with her.  This time, she brought in a couple of local gal powerhouses. She learned from the last run that she needs her local team when she is stumping locally, an effective strategy.

         Leland Christensen is a smart and effective state senator with a ton of experience. He also brings along enough “good old boy” attitude to be very disarming.  Who could possibly dislike Leland? If there was no candidate in the race named Cheney, it is easy to predict him as the winner.

         Tim Stubson looks like a lawyer, talks like a lawyer and campaigns like a lawyer.  In a Wyoming primary, not sure why, but that might hurt his chances to win here.  We see him finishing third.

         Darin Smith of Cheyenne is a late hard-charger that had he gotten some early momentum, might have moved into one of the top three spots but too little, too late.

         Rex Rammell of Gillette had run a confusing campaign and has dropped out. He loved to talk about when he ran a domestic elk farm in Idaho.  Not sure that is a good tack to get votes here in Wyoming.

         The rest of the pack are nice folks and we sure appreciate them running for office in Wyoming.  Tell them all thanks when you see them.